Nepal’s journey towards zero hunger: the triple challenge of Food Security, food self-sufficiency and economic prosperity

Abstract

Executive Summary: Eliminating hunger is a top priority globally, as well as in Nepal. Nepal has made significant progress in improving household food security as well as nutrition of its population, as evidenced by the analysis of national-level survey data as well as internationally available data. At present, Nepal is at a moderate level of hunger with a global hunger index score of 14.8. The prevalence of undernourishment has decreased significantly from 17 percent in 2000 to 5.7 percent in 2023. Stunting of children under the age of five has decreased from 57 percent in 2001 to 25 percent in 2022, while the underweight of children under five has decreased from 48.3 percent to 18.7 percent during the same period. However, micronutrient deficiency remains a major concern in Nepal, with the prevalence of anaemia among women of reproductive age (15 to 49 years) at 34 percent and children under five at 43 percent. A significant improvement has also been observed in food consumption by the populations. Households are now consuming more calories than before, they have a more diverse diet and the consumption of vegetables and fruits, milk and meat has increased significantly in the last two decades. For instance, in 2003/04, the share of calories from cereals in the total caloric consumption by households was 81 percent, followed by oil and fats (5.7%), pulses (3.1%), milk (3.0%), sweets (2.2%), tubers (1.1%), fruits (1.1%) and meat and fish (1.0%). Fast forward to 2022/23, the share of calories from cereals went down to 56 percent while there were significant increases in the shares from oils and fats (12.3%), pulses (6.6%), milk (5.4%), vegetables (3.2%), meat and fish (2.8%), fruits (2.2%), sweets (4.0%) and ready-made food (4.7%). The progress made in improving househoold food security and nutrition is also in line with the significant reduction in national poverty level, which has decreased from 31 percent in 2003/04 to 20 percent in 2022/23. Despite the overall progress at the national level, significant variation exists within the country. For example, Karnali Province has the highest level of household food insecurity and chronic malnutrition with a stunting prevalence of 35.8 percent, while acute malnutrition rates are highest in Lumbini (16.2%, above the WHO emergency thresholds of 15%), followed by Madhesh (10.1%). Prevalence of anaemia in women of reproductive age and children is most serious in Madhesh at 52.6 percent and 50.6 percent respectively. With increasing consumption, there are also populations facing problems associated with over-consumption, unhealthy food habits and a sedentary lifestyle, particularly in urban areas. Nepal is now facing a triple burden of malnutrition – undernutrition, obesity and micronutrient deficiencies. Despite the steady progress in household food consumption and nutrition, which needs to be further accelerated, Nepal remains highly vulnerable on several accounts. Firstly, the agricultural production is not keeping pace with the increasing food demands of the growing population. Even though more than 60 percent of the population is engaged in agriculture, Nepal depends heavily on imports even to meet its basic food needs. This is of serious national concern. Secondly, despite the reduction in poverty, the overall performance of the economy has been very disappointing. The GDP per capita in Nepal at USD 1,496, is little over one half of that in India, and about one tenth of China; and is growing at a pace slower than its neighbours. The economy is heavily dependent on remittances from millions of migrants working in different parts of the world due to the lack of adequate livelihood opportunities within the country. The recent political upheaval led by the youth could be a reflection of frustration with the lack of employment opportunities for the working population and the overall poor governance. With share of remittance accounting for about a quarter of the national GDP, the economy is highly vulnerable to external shocks. Remittances, social protection and improvement in basic services such as road, health services and schooling, have been the key contributors to improved food security and nutrition. While social protection has had a positive impact, the increasing cost of social protection has put pressure on the fiscal situation, with the total annual expenditure on social protection reaching almost the same level as the capital expenditure. Looking at the trends so far, globally, it is no longer realistic to expect to achieve Zero Hunger targets by 2030. In Nepal, despite the progress made so far, meeting those targets appears to be a daunting task though it may be possible to attain targets on some indicators with accelerated efforts. Among them, it could be possible to bring the prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) to a minimal hunger level (below 2.5 percent) with enhanced efforts. Reducing the global hunger index score from the current moderate level (14.8) to a low level (<10.0) could be very challenging and would require serious efforts. Similarly, reducing stunting prevalence to below 15 percent, half of the level compared to 2015, could still be a daunting task. Recommendations Nepal is grappling with the triple challenge of achieving food security, food self-sufficiency, and economic prosperity that generates livelihoods and income opportunities. All efforts should be dedicated to addressing these challenges. Food security and nutrition: Major efforts are needed in addressing food insecurity and stunting, particularly in areas like Karnali Province, and in improving acute malnutrition in Lumbini, Madhesh and Sudurpaschim. Stunting prevention requires a life cycle approach, while acute malnutrition can be improved with focussed interventions for a relatively short period. Urgent steps should be taken to address anaemia in Nepal, particularly in Lumbini, Madhesh and Sudurpaschim provinces. Multi-sectoral, coordinated efforts should be made for intervention in all steps of the food chain with a food systems approach. A well-coordinated, targeted approach is needed for a more effective social protection system. Food self-sufficiency: Nepal should strive to be self-sufficient in basic food needs by 2030, and aim to be a net food exporter. This is achievable by aiming at an agricultural growth rate of 5 percent to 7 percent per annum, reducing post-harvest loss, and with appropriate policy measures put in place for providing market access to domestic production. Economic prosperity: Concrete steps must be taken towards boosting economic growth, creating decent livelihoods and income opportunities inside the country for the working age populations. One of the main challenges in the implementation of programmes directed to the attainment of SDGs, including the Zero Hunger, has been the inadequate funding. Going forward, this is likely to be even more challenging with the deteriorating funding landscape, given Nepal’s heavy reliance on foreign assistance. Therefore, renewed efforts must be made to ensure adequate funding for critical programmes on food security and nutrition. This can be achieved by prioritizing government allocation and adopting proactive, smart approaches to attract international funding. All of these efforts require a robust governance system.